When will it be the end of the coronavirus in Greece?


Greece is in the second best position in Europe – it is estimated that only another 255 people will get the coronavirus.

Researchers from the School of Maritime Studies and Transportation at the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, have published an interesting study on the course of the coronavirus. Applying the SIR model, it is estimated that the end of the course of the coronavirus in Greece will be on June 6, 2020, while by then it is expected that another 255 people will be infected.

The SIR (Susceptible Infected Removed) model calculates the number of patients being treated and the number of patients who have recovered. Through mathematical models and the daily statistical coverage of data in each country, it estimates the future course of the pandemic in 43 countries, as well as in the global population.

The R0 transmittance index is of great importance. Specifically, in their published reports, the researchers calculate for each country the R0 virus’s transmissibility index, which means “how many people can transmit the disease, how many more people are still vulnerable to the disease by the end of the pandemic” and diagrams which depict the daily cases and the calendar forecast of their zeroing.

According to university announcements, the data is presented for educational and academic purposes only and not for medical and commercial purposes. He also points out that the model can fail in some cases and we can use it at our discretion.

Greece with a transmissivity R00.27 index currently ranked sixth best in the world after Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Austria and Norway who have R00.03, 0.13, 0.17, 0.21 and 0.25 respectively, and the second best place in the European Union, after Austria. The biggest problem today is in Latin America, India and Indonesia, where the R0 contagion index, which is the compass for the course of the epidemic, is greater than one. R0 is also high in Iceland (0.92), Russia (0.91) and Ukraine (0.85).

Globally, the R0 is estimated at 0.73 and its European Union average is 0.45, with the highest index in Slovakia (0.95), Sweden (0.81), Poland (0.80) and Romania (0.73).

In the European Union, the end of the pandemic is expected in early August, except in Sweden and Poland, where it is scheduled for a month later, in early September.

Globally, the end of the pandemic is scheduled for August 3, except in Brazil, where it is scheduled for September 1, Indonesia, which is scheduled for early November, and Argentina, where the end is scheduled for early December.

Regarding Greece, as shown in the diagram below, researchers at the University of Ljubljana predict that the end of the pandemic will take place on June 6 and that another 255 people are vulnerable to infection by the end of the pandemic, with an error of 61 people. This assessment is in line with the predictions of my mathematical model, published on May 20.

As for how many more people are vulnerable to the disease by the end of the pandemic, the researchers report that 1,958,990 people are predicted worldwide, 607,430 in India, 475,113 in Russia, 417,805 in the United States and in the Europe Union, 206,468 people.

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Paul Antonopoulos
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