A report in German newspaper Die Welt by Holger Zschäpitz, titled “Erdogan has strong allies especially in Europe,” wrote that the current Turkish “economic problems may be due to itself, but they could spread to Europe and become a problem for the West.”
The subtitle of the article says “Europe’s financial institutions must fear the collapse of Turkey. Many of them are still involved in the country with billions of Euros, and the West has a lot to lose. This makes sanctions more difficult – and strengthens President Erdogan’s authoritarian position.”
Effectively, due to the intimate economic relations between Western Europe, particularly Germany, with Turkey, it makes it difficult for sanctions to be applied despite Turkey’s constant violations and threats against European Union member states Greece and Cyprus.
“At first glance, it seems that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is completely alone. Completely alone against the power of the markets, which do not have a good view of him and his economic policy, which long ago degraded his country to the ‘level of garbage.’ But there are strong players who support it indirectly – why they have to do it – because they have a common destiny with him,” wrote Zschäpitz.
“These are the European banks which, even after four years of ongoing Turkish crisis, are still involved in Turkey with investments of billions of Euros. Western financial institutions will have to fear serious depreciation if the country is to truly enter into an extensive balance of payments crisis, as Moody’s recently warned,” the financial expert continued.
“Turkey’s economic problems may be due to itself, but they could spread to Europe and become a problem for the West. Thus, Europeans are likely to turn their attention to their own banks, in view of discussions on possible sanctions against Ankara at the EU summit in late September, which in turn strengthens Erdogan’s position,” he explained, adding that “the Turkish president does not need to fear that Europeans will cut off Turkish banks from international financial markets, as the US once did with Russian banks after the annexation of Crimea.”
Although European financial institutions have reduced their activities in Turkey in recent years, Spanish, French, British and German banks still have over a hundred billion dollars invested in Turkey.
“In particular, Spanish financial institutions should hope that the situation in Turkey will stabilize. At stake for them is $62 billion. French banks are involved with $29 billion, British banks record in their balance sheets loans to Turkey more than $12 billion, while German banks are involved with about $11 billion dollars. Italian banks have invested about $8.7 billion,” the German newspaper published.
On Bloomberg, John Floyd, head of Record Currency Management’s macroeconomic strategy, explained that the risk of the crisis spreading from Turkey to Europe stems from the involvement of European banks in Turkish banks and companies.
He bets against the government bonds of Spain, France and Italy as well as against the Euro. The former Deutsche Bank executive, who claims to have predicted the crisis in Asia and the collapse of the Argentine Peso in 2001, has found new glory in the collapse of the Turkish Lira.