A reversal of Turkey’s revisionist strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is underway with U.S. sanctions imposed on the Turkish defense industry due its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile system.
Turkey has relied heavily on its war machine that it has been setting up for the past 15 years, with an emphasis on the war industry, in an effort to become self-sufficient in the manufacture of weapons systems.
Ankara claims that its defense industry covers 80% of its Armed Forces needs, but this is a myth, because 60% of quorums and spare parts comes from international specialized industries, mainly in Europe and the West.
As a result, banning U.S. companies from exporting weapons, spare parts and technology to Turkey, banning U.S. banks from lending to the defense industry, and requiring U.S. financial institutions around the world to do the same, would be the beginning of the deconstruction of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also his vision to revive the Ottoman Empire.
Of course, we do not know how long the embargo will last, but judging by the previous U.S. arms embargo on Turkey in 1974 due to the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, where 60% of its aircraft were grounded and 50% of ships moored, we can understand what the current embargo means for the Turkish Armed Forces.
At the political level, the imposition of embargoes on Turkey changes the geopolitical environment in our region in favor of Cyprus and Greece.
It depends on the political leaderships of the two countries on how they will take advantage of this new development and how they will manage problems with Turkey.
On the other hand, of course, we must take into account the fact that, for the immediate future, Turkey may become more aggressive, as long as the embargo does not begin to affect its Armed Forces.
Finally, the decades-old notion that time creates accomplishments, which are always to our detriment, proves to be untrue and reversible.
At present, time is working in favor of the Greek and Cypriot national interests.
Retired General Andreas Pentaras served as Commander of the Cyprus Intelligence Service.