Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers will meet today for talks in Antalya, Turkey.
Although Turkey condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it has also offered mediation services
I am sharing some thoughts on Turkey's position in this conflict.
After the invasion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Russia's actions as "unacceptable" but vowed to balance ties between Russia and Ukraine
Turkey also ruled out participation in Western sanctions against Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky then pre-emptively claimed that Turkey had agreed to block access to Russian warships in the Black Sea
Turkey swiftly denied it had made this decision, but also swiftly U-turned and banned Russian ships.
Ankara has aspired to be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine since the spring 2021 brinkmanship episode
Ukraine has been receptive to Turkish mediation, but Russia rejected it and the US feared that too many diplomatic tracks would create confusion in NATO.
Turkey's ability to maintain business-as-usual relations with Russia, which is evidenced by continued joint patrols in Syria, and support Ukraine, created an opening
Ankara has outmaneuvered Israel and Saudi Arabia, which also coveted this mediation role.
Turkey and Russia have experience working together diplomatically. Both countries tried to bring about a ceasefire in Libya in January 2020, and are co-guarantors of the Astana Peace Process in Syria
2+2 foreign and defence ministry relations have strengthened too.
Prospects for a diplomatic resolution this time are slim, especially given Russia's failure to respect the humanitarian corridors
These talks are a win for Turkey's international status and prestige within NATO, but are unlikely to achieve meaningful results.
By Doctor Samuel Ramani, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has called on Russia to "capitulate" as Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov prepares for "peace talks" with Kyiv’s foreign minister in Turkey on Thursday.
Moscow’s most senior diplomat arrived in the southern resort city of Antalya to negotiate with Dmytro Kuleba at a summit mediated by Ankara, which has supplied Ukraine with drones and condemned the invasion but criticised punitive global sanctions against Russia.
Speaking to BBC Newsnight on Wednesday, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Verashchuk called Moscow’s peace terms "ultimatums" and thundered: "There is only one discussion to be had: Russia’s capitulation."
"I think that in order to make demands you need to meet, you need to talk. But of course, the ultimatums that Russia has put forward are unacceptable: to recognize Crimea, to recognise the separatist republics as independent states, this is completely impossible, she said.
"Of course we cannot trade away our territory, we would have to amend the constitution.
"How could we look the Ukrainian people in the eye and calmly give away a part of sovereign independent Ukraine.
"How will we look our children in the eyes?
"This is aggression, not just against Ukraine as you can clearly see. This is a challenge to the whole world."
Asked what Ukraine wants from the West, Verashchuk went on: "We want them to help us to impose a no-fly zone, at least over critical infrastructure. We would like air defence systems."
When it was put to her that Britain and the US have ruled out no-fly zones because of the risk of nuclear war with Russia, Kyiv’s deputy prime minister retorted: "And the fact that the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is no longer under our control? You don’t think that is a nuclear standoff with Russia?
"Putin is raising the stakes, he knows that. Who do you think this is aimed at? President Zelensky, or President Biden?"
READ MORE: The breakdown of Greek-Russian relations and the whitewashing of the Azov Battalion.
