On a Turkish show, the Italian political analyst Daniele Santoro said that if Russia captures the entire northern coast of the Black Sea, it will be “half a disaster” for Turkey.
“There is a possibility that Russia will dominate the northern shores of the Black Sea and expand its sovereignty there,” the researcher at the Universidade do Minho’s Centre for Ethics, Politics, and Society said.
“The Black Sea is an area in which even a part of Turkey has a say. Apart from the Caucasus, here is the main area of conflict for four centuries between Turkey and Russia.
“If Russia closes access to the sea for Ukraine and succeeds in dominating the northern shores of the Black Sea, it will certainly be half a disaster for Turkey.
“The conflict in Ukraine is something that could have consequences that directly affect Turkey’s national interests and security.
“Do not forget that Turkey in recent years has developed a very deep relationship with Ukraine, while it is beneficial to remember that third generation Turkish drones use Ukrainian engines.
“In fact, Turkey is the only NATO country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia and keeps its airspace open to the Russians.
“This balanced stance that Turkey continues on the one hand allows it to maintain the confidence of the Ukrainians. At the same time, maintaining contacts with the Kremlin is to the benefit of the United States and several European countries.
“But there is definitely a very deep concern in Ankara because it is clear that if the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake it will increase Russian pressure on the straits.
“In the Black Sea the only way out of Russia is the Straits of Istanbul and the Straits of Çanakkale.
“Turkey has decided to close the straits to all warships, including those of Russia. It is clear that, as was the case during the Cold War, Russia will become a dominant power in the Black Sea.
“The ongoing four-century-long conflict between Turkey and Russia over the straits will increase greatly.”