Russian Army's Losses in Ukraine Warning for China Harbouring Taiwan Dreams, Says Italian Expert

China Chinese President Xi Jingping Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen

Italian geopolitical expert Sergio Restelli warned Beijing, who are dreaming of taking over Taiwan by force, with the severe losses of men and material and the battlefield reverses faced by the Russian Army in Ukraine.

Writing for The Times of Israel, Restelli argued that “the era of imperialistic ambitions and grand galactic wars is passé.”

“The severe losses of men and material and the significant battlefield reverses suffered by the mighty Russian Army in Ukraine should serve as a stark warning to hawks in Beijing harbouring fanciful dreams of taking over Taiwan by force,” he said.

“It is evident now that today’s intractably interconnected world, with deep commercial, technological and people-to-people linkages, is not one where brute force can be used to achieve political objectives,” he added.

In his article for the Israeli newspaper, Restelli contented that the interests of the entire community of nations are aligned towards peace, and threats of the use of force do not go unanswered. “Russia has now found itself in a costly war of attrition in which it can now hope for nothing beyond a pyrrhic victory.”

According to the Italian geopolitical expert, Beijing’s incessant rhetoric on Taiwan is eerily similar to Russia’s irredentism.

“China is keenly aware that any military attempt to change the status quo on Taiwan will immediately invite harsh economic sanctions against the Chinese economy on the one hand, and abundant military and financial aid to Taiwan on the other,” he said.

Restelli said the PLA Armed Forces may be the second most powerful in the world, but they cannot afford to fight a war of attrition against the Taiwanese backed by the Western forces combined.

According to him, the democratic world is already working hard at supply chain resilience after learning from the pandemic and now from the Russian attack on Ukraine.

“In addition to this overall grim strategic picture, the layout of the potential battlefield too is alarming from the Chinese point of view. Unlike Ukraine, where the Russian Army can reliably bank upon ground lines of communications and supply, any Chinese campaign in Taiwan must necessarily be naval in nature,” wrote Restelli.

He said Chinese military planners would be well advised to understand the levels of force attrition and military losses that a campaign in Taiwan would entail.

The expert also advised that lessons from Ukraine must be learned and Beijing’s policies should lead China away from a military fiasco in Taiwan, instead of towards it.