As is known, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh against the Armenians and the further strengthening of Azerbaijan, which ensured full control of the region, had a noticeable impact locally and outside the South Caucasus and has become a focus in the major geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia.
However, not only is the "collective West" struggling to strengthen its position in this region, but also India, the largest country in the world, which four years ago was hardly interested in the South Caucasus.
Today, India, worried about the further strengthening of the alliance between Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, formed during the last Nagorno-Karabakh war, saw it as a threat to its interests and rapidly expanded bilateral relations with Armenia.
Armenia opens to India
It is noted that Yerevan is trying to end its dependence on Moscow. New Delhi has not only become the leading supplier of weapons to Armenia but is also discussing plans with Yerevan to develop cooperation in other areas further.
However, to gain a foothold in the South Caucasus, India is not content with bilateral relations with Armenia; it is also considering multilateral partnerships. For example, today, Indian experts are increasingly discussing the prospects of an India-Iran-Armenia tripartite alliance.
And Greece enters the game.
The deepening of Azerbaijan's military-political alliance with Pakistan and Turkey and the strengthening of Ankara's role in the South Caucasus cause genuine concern not only in India but also in Greece, which has begun to deepen relations with Armenia in recent years.
Several weeks ago, documents on military-technical cooperation between Athens and Yerevan were signed.
The India-Armenia-Greece regional alliance
The fact that Greece and India are equally concerned about Turkey's growing role in the region creates concrete prospects for forming another regional alliance: India–Armenia—Greece.
Indian political scientist Mahesh Ranjan Debata believes this alliance can act as a balancing force against the region's Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan axis.
Which, in all probability, is unlikely to please Russia.
The political scientist recalled that Armenia and India signed an agreement on the supply of weapons right after the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the Turkey-Pakistan rapprochement on the Kashmir issue.
The expert added that New Delhi and Yerevan have established mutually beneficial cooperation, with India expanding its arms export market and Armenia acquiring defensive weapons. India and Greece built axes in opposition to Azerbaijan's military-political alliance with Turkey and Pakistan.
Mahesh Ranjan Debata said the agreement between Azerbaijan and Pakistan to supply Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder fighters to Baku also impacts Armenia-India security cooperation.
At the same time, the Indian political scientist pointed out the importance of increasing the annual trade turnover between Armenia and India, which has reached one billion dollars, and also expressed the hope that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Armenia soon. This step will raise Armenia-India relations to a new level.
It should be noted that Russia has not publicly expressed displeasure at India's increased activity in the region, even though India has also become Armenia's leading arms supplier. For now, Moscow's attention is focused on stopping the West's plans to "kick Russia out of the South Caucasus," using Armenia as a springboard.
However, since Yerevan is at least eliminating its dependence on Moscow, weakening one of its levers of influence, Russia cannot be satisfied with New Delhi's presence in the South Caucasus.
And let's consider the possibility of India acting as a guarantor of Armenia's security, which is already being discussed in expert circles. The interests of Moscow and New Delhi in the South Caucasus become fundamentally incompatible.
The North-South Transport Corridor
However, it should be noted that India's interest in the region goes beyond strengthening the alliance of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan.
The South Caucasus is a crucial region through which India plans to build a strategically important International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which will allow it to connect with Europe and Russia through the Iranian plateau, which stretches from the Indus River valley to the east to Mesopotamia in the west.
To complete this transportation route, Indians must build a railroad from northwestern Iran through the South Caucasus to Russia or the Black Sea. Two possibilities exist: a railway through southern Armenia or along the Caspian coast through Azerbaijan.
An analysis published recently by Eurasia Review said that before the 44-day war, India favoured the second option. However, after the victory of Azerbaijan, India began to consider the route through Armenia more secure and profitable.
Concerns between Azerbaijan and Turkey
At the same time, India is watching Armenia's refusal to grant Azerbaijan a corridor in Syunik in southern Armenia. The possibility of a war breaking out over this issue between Baku and Yerevan is not excluded, which endangers the railway planning of India and Iran in this region.
If a military conflict breaks out, plans for the region may change as Azerbaijan and Turkey's concerns about the involvement of third parties increase.
This article first appeared in Echedoros. Translated by Paul Antonopoulos.
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