IMF Forecasts Primary Surplus for Greece, Steady Decrease in Public Debt

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a primary surplus of 2.1 percent of GDP for Greece this year and a decrease in public debt by 10 percentage points to 158.8 percent of GDP in its report on fiscal developments (Fiscal Monitor).

The primary surplus is expected to remain at 2.1 percent of GDP until 2029, which is the time frame of the Fund's forecasts.

If interest rates on public debt are considered, a government budget deficit of 0.9 percent of GDP is forecast this year, which will gradually increase to 1.4 percent in 2029.

In the eurozone as a whole, a primary deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP is expected this year, which will gradually decrease to 0.2 percent in 2029. The overall fiscal deficit is projected to fall from 3.5 percent to 2.3 percent, respectively.

The primary surpluses will allow for a steady decrease in Greece's public debt in the coming years, with its level falling to 138.8 percent of GDP in 2029. In the same year, the eurozone's public debt is projected to be slightly reduced to 87.7 percent of GDP from 88.6 percent in 2023.

General government revenues are projected to fall gradually from 46.8 percent of GDP this year to 43.7 percent in 2029. General government spending will decrease from 47.7 percent to 45.1 percent, respectively.