Forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that this summer will be one of the hottest in recent years across Europe, as republished by the National Observatory of Athens/meteo.gr.
The temperature divergence is expected to reach an extreme value of approximately +2.5ºC compared to the climate value of the period 1993-2016. Notably, this marks the first time that none of the available forecast scenarios for May this year show negative temperature deviations for Europe as a whole.
The warmest summer in recent memory was recorded in 2022, closely aligning with one of the extreme forecast values projected in May of that year.
The attached graph illustrates past forecasts from May 2017 to the present for the summer months (June-July-August). Grey bars depict uncertainty in deviations from the 1993-2016 climate value, while grey circles represent extreme forecast values from all available scenarios. Red "X" bars indicate actual temperatures observed by weather stations after forecast periods, showcasing the ECMWF model's accurate prediction of the general summer temperature trend in Europe, albeit slightly underestimating actual values.
(Source: Amna)
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