Pakistan’s hybrid federal government has approved a reinvigorated and re-energised national counter-terrorism campaign named ‘Operation Azm-e-Istehkam,’ meaning Resolve for Stability in Urdu.
On June 22, Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the Central Apex Committee on the National Action Plan in Islamabad. The meeting was attended by key ministers of the federal cabinet and the Chief Ministers of all provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan, including Services Chiefs, and senior military officers. The forum conducted a comprehensive review of the ongoing counter-terrorism campaign and assessed the internal security situation. “Azm-i-Istehkam will integrate and synergise multiple lines of effort to combat the menaces of extremism and terrorism in a comprehensive and decisive manner,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said in a press release.
Premier Shehbaz said the issue of terrorism had intensely surrounded Pakistan for the last 2.5 decades and was a very complicated matter involving crime, drugs, smuggling, extremism and religious terrorism. While addressing the committee, he said that combatting terrorism in the country was not solely one institution’s job and required a whole-of-government approach. Adding that the rule of law and stability were important for growth and development in the country, adding that establishing the state’s writ was his and the committee members’ collective responsibility.
Operation Azm-e-Istehkam is the latest in a series of operations that Pakistan’s military has launched against militant groups.Operation Al-Mizan was the first major military operation, launched in FATA in 2002 to combat militant groups. Operation Rah-e-Haq was launched in a phased manner in November 2007 to clear the area from militants in Swat Valley. Operation Zalzala was launched in South Waziristan in January 2008. These were followed by Operation Sher Dil launched in Bajaur Agency and Operation Rah-e-Rast in Swat. Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched in June 2014. Counter terror operations in Pakistan have mostly contributed to increasing militancy, especially in the FATA region.
Lack of Political Consensus around Operation Azm-e-Istehkam:
Not everyone in Pakistan is in favour of the latest military campaign. Leading opposition factions, including former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, objected to the announcement without any debate over the issue in parliament.
Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, said that he opposed any new military operation in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the country.
Additionally Apparently, the whole leadership of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa rejected the military operation, so it would be difficult to execute it.”
Following the backlash from the opposition, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office issued a statement, clarifying that “no large-scale military operation” would be launched in Pakistan.
Osama Malik, a political commentator and constitutional expert, sounded sceptical about the campaign’s potential for success, “In a province where the military already has a very low approval rating, this could lead to the operation failing its objectives.” “The lack of support from the PTI government could also mean that the federal government may have to impose governor rule in that province,” Malik said, “which could also lead to political workers coming out onto the streets to protest, causing further chaos.”
Chinese pressure on Pakistan?
Some obsevers say attacks targeting Chinese nationals and investments in Pakistan prompted Islamabad to launch the latest military campaign.The government’s decision to launch the operation came shortly after a top Chinese leader visited Pakistan and expressed concerns about militant attacks against Chinese nationals working on various projects in Pakistan.
It’s estimated that there are some 29,000 Chinese nationals in Pakistan, of which more than 2,500 are working on CPEC.The project is a lifeline for Pakistan’s cash-strapped government, which is currently facing one of its worst economic crises.
“There is pressure from China to ‘fix’ Pakistan’s security situation, which is impeding progress on the CPEC. The joint Pakistan-China readout following the Pakistani leadership’s recent visit to China emphasized the security dimension,” said Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, referring to the China visit by Pakistani Premier Sharif and army chief Asim Munir in June.
Chinese pressure, particularly with domestic security issues, has driven Islamabad to carry out a full-fledged operation on the militants who plan to target Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects.
Will Lead to Worsening Relations with Afghanistan:
Pakistan’s new military operation against armed groups could exacerbate tensions with the Taliban rulers in neighbouring Afghanistan.Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has warned that his military will not hesitate to launch attacks on the territory of Afghanistan. “Nothing is more important than Pakistan’s sovereignty,” he told a foreign media outlet when asked about the possibility of launching cross-border attacks in Afghanistan to contain militants.
“The timing of this new counter-terror operation reflects a few factors: Pakistan having reached the end of its options when it comes to talks with the TTP and asking the Afghan Taliban to pressure the TTP,” Afzal told DW. Afzal pointed to the Taliban’s assertion that they would view Pakistan’s attacks on Afghan soil as “a violation of their sovereignty.” “This will exacerbate tensions with the group and make Pakistan’s western border increasingly troubled,” she noted.
In January 2023, the TTP had issued an explicit warning to the ruling political parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan Peoples Party, threatening to attack their leadership for “announcing war against the outfit to please America.” The terror outfit further claimed that a large portion of the tribal areas in Pakistan are already under TTP’s control and that there is no need for them to use Afghan soil for their operational purposes.
This time in response to Pakistan’s counter terrorism operation “Vision Azm-e-Istehkam”, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan — an umbrella group of Islamist militant outfits known by the acronym TTP, and Hafiz Gul Bahadur group had announced operations “Azm-e-Aleshan” and “Al-Fateh bi al-NusratulRahman” respectively, and there was a possibility of these groups targeting leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz.
Boosting the Military’s Reputation:
What could be the real motive of a full-fledged military offensive or TTP-focused Intelligence Based Operations (IBOs) across Pakistan, and possibly in eastern Afghanistan?
It may be noted that previously launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb is deemed as a strategic failure due to failure of operation to achieve objectives of the National Action Plan. The country failed to foster durable peace, especially after Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb also brought worries and miseries to the local people of North Waziristan agency, as they became hopelessly homeless. In the beginning of operation the then Government promised, that the affected IDPs families will be facilitated during the operation and compensated for their losses after it but in vain. Local people reported that they were the real and only losers in the whole scenario and suffered at the hands of both the Taliban and armed forces/government
Pakistan’s National Action Plan 2014 had strongly called for complementing counter-terrorism with counter-extremism measures to uproot insurgency in North-West Pakistan. Contrary to the National Action Plan, Pakistan saw slow implementation on the National Action Plan since 2019 especially on its primary aim of combating extremism under Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad.
The escalating security turmoil in Pakistan poses a threat to regional stability. There are concerns that the current status quo between India and Pakistan may be jeopardised in the absence of any dialogue, including backchannel talks, amidst increasing chances of cross-border terror activities in J&K and Punjab.
A military operation may lead to serious repercussions for Pakistan’s economy, which is already facing challenges with forex reserves plummeting to an eight-year low. However, it may help the military establishment to rebuild its damaged reputation after facing unprecedented public backlash following the highly contested removal of Imran Khan from power in April 2022. Additionally, Pakistan may hope to garner global support, particularly from the West, and financial aid on the pretext of its war on terrorism.