Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey's Deals with Libyan PM Dbeibah Draw Strong Reactions from Egypt and Greece

Cairo, Egypt – On Sunday, Egyptian and Greek foreign ministers denounced the recent maritime and gas agreements signed by Turkey with Abdulhamid Dbeibah, the outgoing Prime Minister of Libya, during a joint press conference in Cairo.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias emphasized that discussions with his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, were centered on the memorandums of understanding between Turkey and Dbeibah's administration—one of two rival governments in Libya. He warned that these agreements pose a threat to regional stability.

The strong reactions from Cairo and Athens reflect concerns among regional actors that Turkey is exploiting the vulnerabilities of Dbeibah's National Unity Government and its ongoing military presence in Libya to assert its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The agreements, finalized last week in Tripoli, involve joint exploration of hydrocarbon resources in Libya’s territorial waters. Dendias condemned these arrangements as illegal, claiming they infringe upon Greek maritime territory.

“Turkey aims to exploit the chaotic situation in Libya to further destabilize the Mediterranean and establish regional dominance,” Dendias stated. “Geography cannot be overlooked, nor can a virtual reality be fabricated.”

Shoukry echoed these sentiments, asserting that Dbeibah’s government lacks the authority to negotiate such agreements, as its mandate has lapsed following the failure to conduct nationwide elections last December. He urged the United Nations to take a definitive stance regarding Dbeibah’s legitimacy, insisting that the international community should not remain passive.

Additionally, Dendias and Shoukry spoke about tensions in the Aegean Sea, particularly concerning the alleged deployment of U.S.-made armored vehicles by Greece to their islands of Samos and Lesbos.

As of now, there have been no responses from Turkey or Dbeibah’s government.

Libya has been in turmoil since the NATO-backed uprising that overthrew former leader Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, resulting in rival governments claiming legitimacy; Dbeibah in Tripoli and another administration led by Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha.

Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, characterized Turkey’s agreements with Dbeibah's administration—whose legal standing he challenged—as provocations aimed at Greece. He noted that these actions are part of a strategy by a beleaguered President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who seeks to assert nationalistic fervor ahead of the June 2023 elections.

Harchaoui suggested that Erdogan’s government is leveraging Dbeibah’s weakened position, particularly evident during the violent clashes in Tripoli last August, when Turkey aided Dbeibah amidst Bashagha’s attempts to seize control.

Dbeibah defended the agreements, arguing they are crucial for Libya to explore oil and gas resources “in our territorial waters with neighboring countries.”

These recent agreements follow a controversial pact in 2019 between Ankara and a previous Tripoli government, which granted Turkey access to a disputed economic zone in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean, exacerbating tensions with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt over drilling rights.

Analysts suggest that Turkey's agreements with Dbeibah signify a shift in focus of the Libyan crisis—from merely a security and political issue to one involving economic interests in the Mediterranean.

Based on the reactions of regional stakeholders, Turkey is likely assessing its capacity to expand influence in the eastern Mediterranean through this maneuvering in Libya. However, this approach risks intensifying regional tensions.

Furthermore, analysts believe that the strengthened cooperation between Egypt and Greece could draw in other members of the Eastern Mediterranean Forum, as Turkey’s assertive tactics have significant ramifications for the region’s energy landscape.

France has also expressed objections to the recent deal, viewing it as a potential threat to its established economic interests in Libya.

In recent years, Cairo and Athens have solidified their partnership, focusing on energy development, counter-terrorism initiatives, and new maritime border agreements with Cyprus.