Cyprus Readies for Possible Evacuation of Up to 100,000 Individuals from Lebanon

Cyprus is preparing for the potential evacuation of up to 100,000 people from Lebanon as part of the "Estia" plan, in response to the escalating conflict in the region. U.S. officials have notified the Cypriot government about the possible number of citizens who may require transit through Cyprus if violence escalates.

With the situation increasingly precarious, Cyprus is on high alert to handle the anticipated influx. However, there are challenges regarding the accommodation and processing of such a vast number of evacuees. Those arriving will be temporarily housed in Cyprus for a maximum of 48 hours before being transferred to their final destinations. The evacuees include citizens from the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, the UK, and others seeking to escape the conflict.

Key challenges include:

• Complications of Dual Citizenship: Many evacuees hold dual citizenship due to family connections but reside in Lebanon, complicating their willingness to leave amidst the chaos. The initiation of conflict is expected to trigger a surge in evacuation requests, complicating logistics.
• Potential Airspace Closures: Should hostilities escalate, regional airspace may become inaccessible, impacting air travel. Alternatives such as sea routes and helicopter transportation may need to be employed. Foreign vessels are already positioned in the area to assist with evacuation efforts.
• Impact on Regional Airspace: In the event of a widespread crisis, closures may disrupt flights headed to the area, necessitating strategic contingency plans to accommodate stranded individuals in Cyprus, as was seen in April with diverted flights.
• Accommodation Logistics: The prospect of a large influx of evacuees raises significant accommodation concerns. Facilities like the Larnaca Military Camp have been earmarked for use, but historical data shows that past conflicts, such as the 2006 Lebanon War, involved around 60,000 evacuees; current estimates indicate this could double. Some evacuees may also be redirected to neighboring countries like Jordan for better management of resources.

Cyprus is mobilizing all available resources and preparing for swift action to address anticipated humanitarian needs.

In addition to the organized evacuations of foreign nationals, Cyprus expects a significant number of Lebanese individuals arriving on private yachts seeking refuge at Larnaca port. There are also worries about Lebanese nationals who previously obtained Cypriot citizenship and may now seek asylum. Historical patterns, particularly from the 1980s and the 2006 conflict, indicate that many may eventually return to Lebanon once stability is restored.

Moreover, there are concerns that heightened conflict could trigger a new wave of irregular migration from Syria, with many boats expected to depart Lebanese shores en route to Cyprus. However, a significant maritime presence in the area may impede these movements, presenting a critical concern for Cypriot authorities.

Government sources confirm that Cyprus is actively preparing to play a vital role in the regional response through the execution of the "Estia" plan, ensuring effective management of the ongoing crisis.