"Black Swan" sank the yacht of tycoon Mike Lynch?

The term "black swan" describes an unpredictable event that lies beyond what is normally expected in a given situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity and significant impact. Lebanese author and academic Nassim Taleb developed a popular theory around events that can be categorized as "black swans".

The term has been embraced by the scientific community. As reported by the London Times, British tycoon Mike Lynch and the passengers of his yacht, the Bayesian, fell victim to a "black swan" during their cruise in Italy.

Experts specifically refer to the phenomenon of a waterspout, a tornado-like column of air forming suddenly over water. Waterspouts are caused by the collision of cold air currents with warm, moist air currents. This collision creates a vortex with speeds reaching up to 100 km/h. Waterspouts have very short lifespans, but in those few seconds, they can destroy anything in their path.

Ships caught in the vortex of a waterspout are battered not only by ferocious winds but also by massive amounts of water, a combination often leading to the sinking of a vessel. Meteorological and satellite data from the area where the yacht sank, combined with testimonies from local fishermen and images from cameras on ships in the vicinity at the time, indicate the presence of a waterspout. While a rare weather phenomenon, waterspouts have become increasingly frequent in the Mediterranean in recent years, a fact attributed by scientists to climate change.

"That water has significant weight. If the waterspout dumped a load of that water on the vessel, that will do significant damage," says Matthew Schanck, president of the UK’s Royal Institution of Naval Architects’ Small Craft Group.

Prosecutors in Sicily have launched an investigation into the sudden sinking of the Bayesian, including whether hatches were left open by the crew. Their investigation into the shipwreck is expected to take months to complete.

Andrea Ratti, professor of yacht design at the Polytechnic University of Milan, said a vessel the size of the superyacht could only sink so quickly by taking on a huge amount of water. He suggested one or more portholes, windows, or other openings may have been smashed during the event, allowing water to flood in and sink the yacht.

However, a maritime accident expert in Britain who wished to remain anonymous argued it should have taken hours for the 56-meter Bayesian to fill with enough water to sink, making the speed of its sinking difficult to comprehend. "I don't think the industry has ever encountered anything like this. It's a horror story."