Greece has achieved a significant fiscal milestone, reporting a primary budget surplus of €13.489 billion for the January-October period of 2024. This figure far surpasses the target of €4.667 billion and nearly doubles the €6.080 billion surplus recorded in the same period of 2023.
The Ministry of National Economy and Finance attributes a large portion of this surplus to the early collection of €3.241 billion in October from the new Attiki Odos concession contract, originally scheduled for December.
Revenue Growth and Economic Outlook
Net state budget revenues reached €61.263 billion during the first ten months, marking a 6.1% or €3.522 billion increase compared to the budget’s initial projections. The early receipt from the Attiki Odos concession was a major contributor to this growth.
Looking ahead, Greece’s economy is projected to outpace the Eurozone and EU averages in growth over the next two years. According to the European Commission’s Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast, Greece’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.2% in 2026. By comparison, the Eurozone is forecast to grow by 0.8% in 2024, accelerating to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
The growth in Greece is attributed to the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), which has bolstered the economy.
Inflation, Unemployment, and Debt Trends
Inflation in Greece is forecast at 3% for 2024, with a gradual decline to 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, aligning with Eurozone trends. The unemployment rate, currently below 10%, is expected to continue its downward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace.
On the fiscal front, Greece’s general government deficit is shrinking due to zero spending growth and steady nominal GDP increases. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is forecast to decline steadily, reaching 140% by 2026.
This robust performance underscores Greece’s ongoing economic recovery and resilience, signaling a positive outlook for the years ahead.