Olive Oil Prices: What to Expect in 2024-2025

The price of olive oil has always been a barometer of agricultural trends and economic conditions in Mediterranean countries, particularly Greece. This year, however, projections indicate a notable shift in pricing dynamics for olive oil producers, with a drop in the lowest producer price compared to 2023.

According to industry estimates, producer prices for olive oil in 2024 range between €5 and €7 per litre, a significant decrease from last year’s lowest producer price of €9-10 per litre. Despite this, consumers may not see any relief at the supermarket. Retail prices for olive oil are expected to remain steady, fluctuating between €7.25 and €16.20 per litre, the same levels as in 2023.

Conflicting Forecasts for Harvest and Retail Prices

As the olive harvest season begins, uncertainty looms over the quality and quantity of this year's yield. Producers across various regions in Greece report that inconsistent weather patterns, particularly a lack of rainfall, have negatively impacted olive production. These climatic challenges could result in reduced yields, further complicating price dynamics and supply stability.

European Commission Forecasts Production Increase

The European Commission has released more optimistic projections, estimating that Greece’s olive oil production for the 2024-2025 period will reach 250,000 tonnes, marking a 42.9% increase compared to the 175,000 tonnes recorded in 2023-2024. However, the report also highlights concerns over both quantitative and qualitative damages caused by adverse conditions affecting the olive trees.

Despite the expected increase in production, significant challenges persist:
- Climatic Impact: Drought conditions have stunted yields in many regions, leaving some areas with little to no harvest this year.
- Labour Costs: The daily wages for harvest workers have soared to €70-80, increasing the financial burden on producers.
- Rising Expenses: Costs for essentials like agricultural medicines, water, and electricity continue to escalate, eroding profit margins.

Regional Variations and Market Trends

The disparity in production across different regions of Greece is another complicating factor. While some areas anticipate a better-than-average harvest, others face significant losses due to climatic conditions and pest infestations. This uneven production could lead to regional price fluctuations, particularly in local markets where olive oil is sold directly by producers.

Furthermore, the high cost of production inputs—compounded by inflation—makes it unlikely for retail prices to drop, despite the lower producer prices. Supermarkets and distributors are expected to maintain their current pricing structure to cover operational and logistics costs, leaving consumers to shoulder the financial burden.

Global and Long-Term Outlook

The trends in Greece are reflective of broader challenges faced by olive oil producers globally. Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, has also reported yield reductions due to drought, affecting global supply chains and prices. These external factors could further influence Greece's olive oil market, as international buyers may turn to Greek producers to fill supply gaps.

As the olive oil market braces for another unpredictable year, stakeholders—ranging from farmers to consumers—must navigate a complex landscape shaped by climatic, economic, and global factors. While increased production in Greece provides a glimmer of hope, the challenges of rising costs, labour shortages, and climatic unpredictability underscore the fragility of this vital industry.

For consumers, the steady retail prices may come as a relief amidst wider inflationary pressures. However, for producers, the cost of maintaining quality and sustaining yields under challenging conditions remains a pressing concern.

Greek olive oil, long considered a staple of the Mediterranean diet and a symbol of the country’s agricultural heritage, faces an uncertain yet resilient future.

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