As thousands of Syrian refugees prepare to return, with no persecution from the Assad regime, a large number of Shiites and Alawites are fleeing the country. European countries, including Greece, are putting asylum applications on hold, fearing new waves of refugees.
The more moderate Alawites, Shiites, and potentially Christians in Syria face an uncertain future as jihadists come to power. They find little welcome in Turkey, while Lebanon, a potential refuge, is engulfed in conflict. The region's turmoil is further strained by the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In Greece, authorities are on alert, noting a slight increase in migrant flows, particularly in Crete.
Greece's Readiness for Refugee Influx
Migration and Asylum Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos states that Greece is prepared for any scenario and that the country’s facilities have not reached their limits.
"Based on current data, we expect a maximum of about 50,000 arrivals, mainly from the Turkish and North African coasts. This is much less than the 1.3 million in 2016," Panagiotopoulos clarified. "The heightened alerts reflect necessary vigilance but are not comparable to past crises. Certainly, numbers have increased, but they remain manageable."
He emphasized that the majority come from Asia and Africa, including Egypt and sub-Saharan regions, aiming to reach Northern Europe, often through Greece.
The current capacity of mainland facilities is approximately 60%, indicating potential to accommodate more refugees if needed.
Uncertain Syrian Situation Impact on Migration
Panagiotopoulos noted, "Refugee flows have decreased for now, but the situation is unpredictable. Tomorrow could bring a different regime, with new persecution. Stability in Syria remains elusive, with ongoing skirmishes and no official diplomatic channels. We are pausing decisions on asylum claims until the situation clarifies, consistent with broader European policy."
Currently, about one-third of those in Greek facilities are Syrians awaiting asylum decisions. Panagiotopoulos highlighted that without the Assad regime, claims of persecution need reassessment.