The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and its Impact on Regional Stability

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is causing significant instability, particularly affecting the region’s military militias.

Kurdish forces, now emboldened, are causing tensions with Turkey, further complicating an already volatile situation. The risk of a new war in the region is becoming increasingly plausible.

The Nagel Commission, which assesses Israel's military spending, recently reported that Iran no longer poses a major threat to Israel. Instead, the real danger now comes from Ankara. The fall of Syria’s dictator has thrown the country into turmoil, with significant geopolitical implications for the Middle East. Israel, concerned about the rise of pro-Iranian forces, has carried out preemptive strikes to prevent a concentration of these forces, particularly in Lebanon. However, the rise of Kurdish power in Syria adds a new and unpredictable factor to the equation.

The Kurdish Challenge

In early January 2025, Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Kurdish forces, announced a new agreement on “the unity and territorial integrity of Syria.” The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have controlled parts of northeast Syria since 2011, have operated autonomously from Damascus. Amid Syria's recent political chaos, the SDF has expanded its territory with the support of Western powers, especially the U.S., in their fight against the Islamic State. However, this growing Kurdish autonomy has sparked concern in Ankara.

Turkey’s Kurdish Problem

In Turkey, a significant Kurdish population in the southeast seeks independence, often under the banner of the PKK, an armed group that the West designates as a terrorist organization. The progress of the SDF in Syria raises alarms for the Turkish government, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accusing them of ties to separatist groups like the PKK. Turkey’s military has already conducted airstrikes and raids in Syria following Assad’s fall, and tensions remain high. On January 6, 2025, Erdogan warned against any power shifts that could threaten Turkish interests. According to the Nagel Commission, this stance reflects Turkey’s imperialist ambitions to re-establish influence reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire, with Turkish military operations extending into Libya and Azerbaijan.

Preparing for Potential Conflict

Given the escalating situation in Syria and Turkey’s regional ambitions, the Nagel Commission has advised Israel to monitor developments and take precautionary measures closely. There is a potential for militias to form in defence of Turkish interests, which could lead to covert operations aimed at regaining control over Palestinian territories. Such actions would likely provoke a confrontation with Israel. The report calls for the construction of a barrier along Israel’s border with Jordan and recommends a significant increase in the defence budget—an additional 15 billion shekels (€3.98 billion) over five years—so Israel is prepared to confront Turkey and its possible regional allies.

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