Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical Dilemmas For Greece

Andreas Orphanidis is a columnist for Politis and a professor and anthropologist at Philips University. Translated by Paul Antonopoulos.

Syria is at the centre of geopolitical turmoil as, after a decade of conflict and instability, the conditions for a new leadership are being formed. Although the country struggles to rebuild, external factors and geopolitical rivalries largely determine its course.

International powers, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, the United States and the European Union, have strategic interests in the region, making Syria a field of competition that is expected to shape the future not only of itself but also of the wider Eastern Mediterranean.

Russia, which was the main ally of the Assad government during the civil war, maintains strong influence. The military bases in Latakia and Tarsus represent crucial strategic points for Moscow, which seeks to consolidate its presence in the Middle East. Russia's role in shaping the new leadership of Syria seems dominant, as Damascus remains in its orbit of influence.

At the same time, through economic, military and political support, Iran plays a key role. Tehran sees Syria as a key part of the "Shiite crescent" and controls militias and structures that ensure its stable presence in the country. Although Russia and Iran cooperate in some fields, their ambitions do not fully coincide, which creates a fragile balance.

Turkey, for its part, is leveraging its geographical proximity and military might to secure its interests in Syria. Ankara is focused on preventing Kurdish autonomy in the north while also attempting to strengthen its influence through pro-Turkish forces and military operations. Although Turkey's role depends on the balances imposed by Russia, Ankara remains actively involved in negotiations and political processes.

Israel seeks to prevent the establishment of permanent military infrastructure by Iran and Hezbollah by intensifying espionage, airstrikes, and cooperation with allies. Its strategy focuses on ensuring the security of its borders and preventing the transfer of advanced weapons to Lebanon.

Israel’s dilemmas include maintaining American support, managing relations with neighbouring Arab countries, and countering Iranian influence. Israel continues to strengthen its position as an energy hub and strategic player in the Eastern Mediterranean. Partnerships with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt to develop and export natural gas are creating strong alliances, while the confrontation with Turkey over maritime borders complicates diplomatic balances.

Qatar has played a significant role in the Syrian crisis, mainly through support for the opposition, humanitarian aid and regional diplomacy. At the beginning of the civil war, it was one of the main financiers of the Syrian opposition, providing financial and material support while helping to create the Syrian National Alliance. It also maintained a role as a mediator, although its influence has been limited due to the strengthening of the Russian and Iranian presence.

Doha continues to participate in regional negotiations, with an emphasis on the transition of power in Syria. In the field of reconstruction, it has stated that it will contribute only to the condition of political changes, underlining its opposition to the Assad regime. Qatar's alliance with Turkey strengthens its position in Syria while acting as a counterweight to the influence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. At the same time, it invests in humanitarian aid, improving its image internationally and strengthening its influence in affected communities.

The United States, although it has limited its military presence in Syria, continues to influence developments through sanctions and diplomatic pressure. The European Union, on the other hand, is watching with interest, expecting to play a role in the reconstruction of the country once political stability is achieved.

Despite the competition, Russia seems to maintain an advantage due to its long-standing relationship with Syria and its military and diplomatic power. However, Iran, Turkey and the United States are not left out, making the geopolitical landscape particularly complex. The final formation of the balance depends on international developments, internal dynamics and regional negotiations.

The transition of power in Syria is expected to have significant geopolitical implications for the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly affecting Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece. If Russia consolidates its dominance, Turkey will likely adapt, maintaining a strategic role in northern Syria and participating in the reconstruction process.

Ankara will seek to ensure its presence, mainly through control of Kurdish forces, cooperation with Russia, and participation in Russian-sponsored political initiatives. This dynamic, however, may strengthen Turkish revisionism, affecting the Eastern Mediterranean.

Stabilising the Turkish position in Syria may allow it to redirect military and political power towards Cyprus and Greece. For Cyprus, this means increased pressure on Cypriot waters and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) while for Greece, Turkish revisionism may manifest itself with intensity in the Aegean.

Furthermore, Russia, leveraging its strategic presence in Syria, may expand its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, creating new challenges for Cyprus and Greece.

Finally, Turkey will likely use the refugee issue and the attempted delimitation of the EEZ with Syria as tools to pressure the European Union, while its military involvement in Syria will enhance its operational capabilities.

This requires Greece and Cyprus to adjust their strategy, focusing on strengthening their alliances, upgrading their defence readiness and maintaining flexible international relations.

It is evident that developments in Syria are shaping a complex geopolitical landscape, with Turkey evolving into a dynamic yet adaptive player. For Greece and Cyprus, managing the new balances is crucial to responding to the challenges arising from a stronger Turkey and an upgraded Russian presence in the region.

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