Pakistan’s CPEC Diplomacy Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Security Concerns

In Beijing’s diplomatic district, Pakistan’s efforts to reinvigorate the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have taken center stage. Recent high-level meetings between Pakistani officials and their Chinese counterparts have highlighted significant concerns over security, financial strain, and mutual trust. While CPEC was initially celebrated as a symbol of a strong partnership, emerging issues have cast a shadow over its progress.

Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary’s December visit to Beijing underscored the complexities of the situation. Chaudhary addressed concerns about attacks on Chinese nationals, attributing them to “exogenous acts by enemies,” while simultaneously seeking continued financial support from China’s Export-Import (EXIM) Bank. This dual approach—downplaying internal security challenges while requesting external assistance—reflects contradictions in managing CPEC’s development and sustainability.

The security situation remains a critical challenge. In 2024 alone, at least five Chinese workers associated with CPEC projects lost their lives in attacks attributed to Baloch militants. These incidents are part of a broader trend of violence that has persisted since 2018, leading to casualties among Chinese nationals and heightened concerns about project safety. Groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have issued explicit warnings to China, while also targeting Chinese investments as a form of resistance against the state.

China’s frustration with these developments is becoming more apparent. A recent public statement by the Chinese Ambassador, criticizing Pakistan’s ability to protect its citizens, marked a significant shift from China’s typically reserved diplomatic tone. This sentiment is reflected in actions such as the suspension of several CPEC projects and increased hesitancy from Chinese financial institutions to commit new funding.

Meetings between Pakistani officials and Chinese stakeholders have further exposed these challenges. For instance, EXIM Bank President Wang Chunying declined funding for the Pakistan Satellite Center project, signaling deeper concerns about Pakistan’s ability to meet its obligations. Over the years, Pakistan’s debt to China has risen from $4 billion to $30 billion since CPEC’s launch in 2013. Recent requests for extensions on loan repayments, interest rate reductions, and currency adjustments underscore the financial pressures Pakistan faces.

Negotiations led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb for debt relief have met resistance. Chinese power companies have declined to renegotiate existing power purchase agreements, leaving Pakistan struggling with rising capacity payments and the urgent need to reduce electricity costs.

The Pakistani government has announced new security initiatives, including Operation Azm-e-Istehkam and a comprehensive military operation in Balochistan, in response to these challenges. However, with security forces already managing multiple priorities, these efforts risk being seen as reactive rather than strategic. The possibility of China turning to private security firms for protection further underscores doubts about Pakistan’s ability to safeguard foreign investments. Such measures could raise concerns about Pakistan’s sovereignty and deter other potential investors.

CPEC’s economic benefits, while significant, have fallen short of expectations. Although the initiative has created approximately 155,000 jobs in Pakistan, this is far from the originally envisioned 2 million opportunities. Comparisons with China’s economic engagements in other countries, such as India, where bilateral trade exceeded $100 billion in 2024, and Afghanistan, where new railway connections are being established, highlight the challenges facing CPEC.

The recent fifth meeting of the CPEC Joint Working Group emphasized themes such as “high-quality development,” innovation, and sustainability. However, these ambitions are difficult to realize without addressing fundamental security concerns and rebuilding trust with Chinese partners.

Pakistan’s approach of attributing challenges to external factors while seeking continued support is increasingly unsustainable. The erosion of China’s trust in Pakistan as a reliable partner underscores the urgency for concrete reforms in security and financial management. Without significant progress, the future of CPEC—and Pakistan’s economic and strategic trajectory—remains uncertain. Addressing these issues is critical not only for the success of CPEC but also for Pakistan’s broader economic and regional standing.