As Venezuelans voted in the presidential election on Sunday, the role of China has become clearer with Beijing’s support for the country’s long time leader, Nicolas Maduro. The outcome could either lead to a seismic shift in politics or extend by six more years the policies that have caused one of the world’s worst peacetime economic collapses. The vote is critical for Venezuela, which has experienced violent repression under Maduro and the worst economic collapse of a peacetime country in recent history. Once the fifth-largest economy in Latin America, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk in the last decade to the equivalent of a medium-sized city, according to the International Monetary Fund.
China’s influence in Venezuelan politics is significant, as Beijing has supported both Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. Beijing has provided economic aid and political backing, especially during times when the Bolivarian revolution faced threats. In the current presidential campaign, China has once again become a key player in Maduro’s bid for six more years in power. When Maduro visited Beijing in 2023, the bilateral relationship was elevated to an All-Weather Strategic Partnership, incorporating new trade agreements beyond oil and involving subnational actors. This new integration scheme has led Caracas to take the Chinese development model as an example for its planned reforms.
Experts argue that China’s involvement cannot be overlooked amid Venezuela’s fierce domestic political battles. They dismiss the idea of a neutral China in Venezuelan affairs, suggesting that China prefers Maduro in power, as it guarantees an unconditional ally amidst a larger geopolitical dispute with the United States. However, this does not exclude the possibility that Beijing could develop normal relations with a Venezuelan opposition government led by Edmundo González Urrutia, who, according to most polls, has close to 60 percent support. In this event, Beijing will face a dilemma: whether to continue supporting its preferred ally or to accept a new stage in the bilateral relationship.
Maduro has promised to build power plants and other projects with Chinese capital and has expressed a desire for Venezuela to join BRICS, the group of emerging countries dominated by China. He also boasts of Chinese support in guaranteeing his security in the event of a social conflict with the opposition, highlighting access to advanced technology in drone and anti-drone combat. Recently, Maduro threatened “bloodshed and civil war” if he and his party are ousted from power.
The Diplomat reported that China has been bold in its support for Maduro. In March, when it was believed that Maduro would block the opposition United Platform’s candidacy, Beijing backed Venezuela’s electoral system while urging the U.S. to avoid interference in Venezuelan affairs. In June, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the U.S. for the “seizure” of CITGO Corp, a subsidiary of the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). China’s actions contrast with its stated policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. In Venezuela, Beijing has offered unconditional political, diplomatic, and economic support to maintain the Bolivarian regime, which opposes the principles of liberal representative democracy and extols Chinese authoritarianism.
The strategic alliance between China and Venezuela, driven by mutual interests, has been a cornerstone of Maduro’s ability to remain in power. This partnership, rooted in economic aid, political support, and shared geopolitical goals, underscores the complex dynamics of international relations that influence domestic politics. As Venezuela heads to the polls, China’s role in supporting the ruling leaders remains a critical factor in the unfolding political narrative.
Background:
The strategic relationship between Caracas and Beijing solidified in 1999 when Hugo Chávez was elected president. Chávez’s vision of a multipolar world aligned with China’s ambitions, leading to his visits to Beijing in 1999 and 2001. These visits marked the inception of the China-Venezuela High-Level Joint Commission, which elevated their diplomatic relationship to a Strategic Partnership for Shared Development. Initially focused on agriculture and energy, the partnership soon expanded to include closer political, economic, commercial, and cultural ties.
In 2004, after Chávez survived a recall referendum, he sought Chinese investments to bolster his position for the 2006 elections. This period saw the creation of the China-Venezuela Joint Fund (FCCV), a loan-for-oil scheme that allowed Venezuela to navigate international financial difficulties. The flow of Chinese capital into Venezuela during 2006-2012 was substantial, with infrastructure investments and trade exchanges increasing alongside the FCCV. In 2010, China transferred $20 billion to Venezuela through a new financing fund, further entrenching Venezuela’s dependence on Chinese economic support.
China’s financial aid was pivotal in Chávez’s re-election for his fourth term in 2012. The Venezuelan government used Chinese loans to fund social programs and buy household appliances, housing, buses, private cars, mobile phones, and laptops, all crucial for Chávez’s electoral victory. After Chávez’s death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro took over, narrowly winning the subsequent election. During this turbulent period, China’s unwavering support was vital. President Xi Jinping hosted key Venezuelan officials, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and renewing the FCCV with another $14 billion in aid.
Despite the economic crisis and the collapse of the national oil industry, China continued to back Maduro. In 2016, Beijing renegotiated part of Venezuela’s bilateral debt, providing relief amid U.S. sanctions in 2017 and 2019. China also supported Maduro during the controversial 2018 elections, which were marred by accusations of fraud. When Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president in 2019, China used its veto power in the U.N. Security Council to block a resolution recognizing Guaidó, thus maintaining its support for Maduro.
China’s assistance extended beyond financial aid. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing sent Venezuela 110 tonnes of medical supplies, including 1 million PCR test kits, 8 million masks, 2 million gloves, and vaccines. This humanitarian aid further solidified the bond between the two nations.
In the current presidential campaign, China remains a crucial ally for Maduro. His 2023 visit to Beijing elevated the bilateral relationship to an All-Weather Strategic Partnership, introducing new trade agreements beyond oil and involving subnational actors. Maduro has promised to build power plants and other infrastructure with Chinese capital and expressed his desire for Venezuela to join BRICS, the group of emerging countries dominated by China.