DELPHI, Greece – At the Delphi Economic Forum, the Middle East Forum (MEF) convened a panel to address the Eastern Mediterranean’s evolving role in Middle East security, spotlighting Turkey’s destabilizing influence.
Moderated by Thanos Davelis, the discussion featured Michael Rubin (American Enterprise Institute), Gregg Roman (MEF Executive Director), Jonathan Spyer (MEF Director of Research), and Ian Lesser (German Marshall Fund). The panel emphasized the strategic importance of the Israel-Greece-Cyprus partnership and warned of Turkey’s aggressive actions undermining regional stability.
Turkey’s Role in Regional Instability
Gregg Roman compared Turkey’s support for Sunni terror groups to Iran’s backing of Shia proxies, noting that Turkey’s influence operations, launched from Istanbul and Ankara, target the West, Eastern Mediterranean, and Middle East. “Turkey hosts Sunni terror groups much like Iran supports Shia groups,” Roman said, citing Hamas attacks planned in Istanbul and Turkey’s backing of Syrian militias committing atrocities. He also highlighted Turkey’s use of migration as a weapon to pressure Europe, underscoring the need for a robust response.
Michael Rubin described Turkey’s occupation of territories and potential pursuit of nuclear capabilities as major threats, cautioning that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies, including leveraging NATO’s Article 5, could endanger Europe, Israel, and Arab states. Jonathan Spyer pointed to Turkey’s strategic gains in Syria, particularly the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Damascus on December 8, 2024, and plans for a new exclusive economic zone with Syria, as evidence of Ankara’s hegemonic ambitions.
Strengthening the Israel-Greece-Cyprus Alliance
The panel stressed the critical role of the trilateral partnership between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus in countering Turkish aggression. Roman called for formalizing this alliance into a U.S.-backed defense agreement, citing joint initiatives like the Great Sea Interconnector and maritime patrols as vital for regional security. “The tripartite agreement’s diplomatic, security, and economic strength counters Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism,” he said, noting its potential to offer Middle Eastern countries an alternative trade route to Europe.
Jonathan Spyer highlighted the alliance’s success in thwarting terrorist plots, such as a 2023 attack on a Jewish site in Cyprus and the arrest of Iranian and Pakistani operatives in Cyprus and Greece. However, he warned of new risks, including Hezbollah’s threats against Cyprus in June 2024, driven by Turkey’s use of proxies from Northern Cyprus.
Strategic Infrastructure and U.S. Involvement
The Great Sea Interconnector, linking Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, was cited as a transformative project facing direct Turkish disruption, notably through the 2019 Turkey-Libya exclusive economic zone agreement. Roman noted U.S. Congressional support for securing such infrastructure through cybersecurity and electronic warfare measures, with Israel prepared to bolster the eastern flank. Michael Rubin emphasized that this cooperation allows Israel to lead on Eastern Mediterranean maritime security, easing pressure on Greece’s navy in the Aegean.
Ian Lesser underscored the Eastern Mediterranean’s role as a nexus of European and Middle Eastern security, with initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) extending its strategic reach. While the U.S. is likely to remain engaged, he cautioned that Brussels’ focus on connectivity projects may be overshadowed by other priorities.
U.S.-Turkey Relations and Policy Challenges
The panel expressed concern over U.S. policy toward Turkey, particularly in light of President Trump’s recent praise for Erdogan. Ian Lesser described the U.S.-Turkey relationship as fragile and driven by personal dynamics, with limited Congressional support for Turkey. Jonathan Spyer criticized U.S. policymakers’ apparent unawareness of Turkey’s radical path, urging containment of its aggressive strategy spanning Libya, Syria, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Call to Action
The panel concluded with a call for urgent action to strengthen the Israel-Greece-Cyprus alliance, secure critical infrastructure, and counter Turkey’s multifaceted threats. Rubin warned that Erdogan’s influence on Turkey’s institutions will persist beyond his tenure, while Spyer highlighted the need to monitor Turkey’s growing influence in Syria and Lebanon. Roman emphasized the alliance’s role as a democratic shield, protecting Western interests against Turkey’s asymmetrical warfare.
For the full discussion, visit https://www.meforum.org/spoken/eastern-mediterranean-contributions-to-middle-east-security
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