Syria: Greece and Europe in the puzzle

The Greek initiative to pressure the EU to gain a strong presence in Syria concerns Ankara's aspirations in the Middle East and the possibility of a Turkish-Syrian memorandum aimed against Cyprus.

The fluid situation in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime poses complications for the region and potential risks for Greece. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is calmly monitoring developments, although there is great alert at the moment, with all interested players redefining their stance.

Athens is not just monitoring but has taken the initiative with Cyprus and Austria to pressure the EU to gain a strong presence in Syria, shaping the roadmap for its presence in the Middle East.

Currently, the jihadist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has taken over the administration of Syria, is in financial suffocation of such magnitude that it cannot put the dissolved institutions and state mechanisms into operation to rebuild the country.

Who will bear the financial costs?

The issue of funding is urgent and existential for Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and is considered to be what will determine his stance towards the West, that is, whether he will maintain a moderate stance or whether he will proclaim Islamic law.

Syria's funding came mainly from Qatar and Iran, but now these channels have been closed, and it remains to be seen whether a new informal alliance consisting of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will assume the financial cost of reopening the state.

Rebuilding the country will require much larger funds and occupy a second phase. At this stage, the West is not willing to put its hand in its pocket, while it has not yet decided how to behave towards Al-Jolani, who is on the US terrorist list.

Furthermore, Western countries, unable to face their own contradictions and weaknesses, are leaving room for the Arab World to take on a regulatory role in the situation, which is showing strong interest in any case.

The powerful Arab countries appear wary of Syria's new administration, but they are interested in its self-determination so that external actors do not interfere in the country, in the elimination of terrorism, and in the inclusiveness of the state.

Despite the urgency of the situation, international actors are in a quandary. The Russians are trying to secure their two bases in Syria, the Iranians are out of the game, the US has not decided whether to recognise Islamists as a force in this transitional phase, and the EU is not moving actively due to its inherent weaknesses.

The only ones who are absolutely active are the Turks and the Israelis.

Israel, having imposed a regime of impunity for its actions, is simultaneously acting in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria to secure its interests. The Turks are attempting to create a buffer zone in the North to pressure the Kurds east of the Euphrates and to prevent the possibility of autonomy or semi-autonomy for Kurdistan. They are also trying to infiltrate the new administration by offering direct funding.

However, the Turkish overactivity on the above fronts is causing reactions from almost all other factors, and even the Palestinians have expressed reservations about the role that Turkey seeks, even though it is the most ardent supporter of Hamas.

They are blocking the way to a Turkish-Syrian memorandum

For Greece, Turkey's aspirations pose the visible risk of delimiting an Exclusive Economic Zone through a Turkish-Syrian memorandum modelled on the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out from Brussels that "the common position of the EU and Greece is that the Turkish-Libyan memorandum is illegal and invalid" and added that it is too early to draw conclusions about Turkey's role in Syria.

Previously, at the EU Foreign Affairs Council, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis, together with his counterparts from Cyprus and Austria, submitted a three-page text with specific goals and actions that Europe could undertake to ensure a smooth transition in Syria and create a state that respects International Law and the Law of the Sea.

The last two conditions will de facto prevent the conclusion of a Turkish-Syrian memorandum.

Among the objectives contained in the text of the three countries is the establishment of an official permanent EU special envoy in Damascus, who will ensure that the EU agreement with Syria will condition compliance with International Law, the protection of religious minorities and religious monuments, the assessment of sanctions, etc.

These issues are expected to be discussed again at the extraordinary EU summit on European security on February 3, 2025.

The article by Dimitra Kroustallis was first published in Greek in To Vima.

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