Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that his response to Hamas’ attack will “change the Middle East.” I don’t think this was said in isolation and also relates to Israel’s goal of becoming an energy and transportation hub, something it cannot become so long as such severe threats remain.
We have already seen how Gaza’s population is being pressured to be driven out to Egypt by the relentless Israeli bombardment and the threat of an expected invasion by Israeli ground forces. Netanyahu is attempting to destroy any threat that can be posed to transforming Israel into an energy and transportation hub, especially after the announcement of IMEC, which aims to be an alternative to China’s BRI and bring Indian products to Europe.
Such a corridor can only work if attacks do not compromise it, and ultimately, Netanyahu will take a heavy-handed approach. Palestinian civilians will suffer the most in the quest to destroy Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other militant groups.
Israel is not guaranteed to succeed in destroying Hamas, especially if Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran become involved. But what is certain is the Middle East is changing.
If Hezbollah becomes involved, there is a greater chance of civil war in Lebanon, considering their own immense divisions amidst the crippling economic crisis, which will almost certainly change the dynamics in that country. Syria’s full capabilities are limited since it is already partially occupied by the United States and Turkey, sanctions, and dealing with its own terrorist issues, while any Iranian attack will receive an American response, which might limit what they are willing to do to Israel.
Nonetheless, Israel must take the threat of simultaneous attacks from Hezbollah, Syria and Iran seriously, which could be enough to deter it from attacking Gaza in the way it wants to. I doubt it, though, especially after the US announced the deployment of the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group that arrived there earlier this week and is in international waters off Israel. Just those two aircraft carriers alone have an air force fleet greater than most countries entire air force.
So, in this position, either one side will have to humiliatingly back down, or we will see greater conflict in the Middle East, which will obviously end the ambitions of IMEC until a long and brutal conflict ends. I suspect the threat of the USS Eisenhower and the USS Gerald R Ford will be enough to deter Syria and Iran, especially when no other neighbouring country of Israel is expressing a willingness to intervene.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly frozen plans to normalise ties with Israel, creating speculation that IMEC will not happen. However, IMEC has never depended on Saudi Arabia and Israel officially normalising their ties, just for the two to be cordial since Jordan is the conduit between the two countries on the corridor. Saudi Arabia and Israel have had clandestine relations for many years, which will continue, even if Saudi officials are making some public statements condemning Israel’s response to Hamas’ attack.
Obviously, Turkey also has an interest in IMEC not coming to fruition as it once again proves that the old notion that Anatolia is needed for East-West passage is no longer relevant in the modern world, but I’ll cover that another time.
All-in-all, Netanyahu is correct - we will definitely see a changed Middle East, but whether that is how he imagines it to be remains to be seen. If it is how he imagines it, it will be with a destroyed, pacified, and perhaps even a depopulated Gaza that can no longer threaten Israel’s goal of becoming an energy and transportation hub. I still doubt Syria and Iran will attack Israel, or at least in a very serious way, because of US deterrence. Because of that, even Hezbollah would have to weigh up a war's potential blowback on a volatile and unstable Lebanon.
I don’t think IMEC is threatened by this conflict, just delayed at worse.
