The Trump administration is recalibrating its Middle East strategy, notably sidelining Turkey in favor of strengthened partnerships with other key regional players in security and trade matters.
In a significant diplomatic push, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is spearheading high-level discussions across the Middle East, focusing efforts on fortifying ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states. A notable exclusion in this maneuver is Turkey, historically a critical partner for the US in the region.
Rubio’s regional itinerary underscores three focal points: brokering peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia—a role Turkey previously managed—promoting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that sidesteps Turkey, and bolstering US-Israel relations with security talks and plans for Gaza’s reconstruction.
Despite Turkey’s unique position as NATO’s sole Middle Eastern member, Rubio has notably omitted a visit to Ankara, reflecting increasingly strained US-Turkey relations.
Russia-Ukraine Peace Process
The US is now pivoting towards Saudi Arabia as a key mediator in global conflicts, as evidenced by relocating the Russia-Ukraine peace talks to Riyadh. Marco Rubio is heading negotiations with Russian counterparts in an effort to resolve the prolonged Ukraine conflict, succeeding a direct dialogue between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This marks the first significant US-Russia engagement in recent years, potentially setting the stage for a Trump-Putin summit. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will represent the Kremlin, engaging with Rubio and other US officials on restoring bilateral relations and exploring ceasefire prospects in Ukraine.
The relocation to Saudi Arabia signifies a reorientation away from Turkey, which had been instrumental in prior negotiations. The Trump administration’s focus on Riyadh underscores a shift from the Biden-era collaboration with Turkey.
Trade Collaborations
Progress on IMEC, designed to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, notably excludes Turkey despite long-standing lobbying efforts from Ankara. The corridor’s route favors India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus, placing Turkey outside Washington’s economic blueprints in the region.
Turkey’s alternative proposal for a trade corridor through Iraq remains speculative. A senior US official commented that while Turkey remains a NATO member, emerging geopolitical priorities necessitate concentrating on reliable trade partnerships.
Gaza Reconstruction Proposal
Rubio’s talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu include controversial proposals for Gaza’s redevelopment. Trump’s administration has floated a plan to transform Gaza into a Middle Eastern tourist hub, controversially proposing the relocation of its inhabitants to nearby Arab countries—a proposal met with widespread criticism and rejection from regional states.
Amidst Turkey’s exclusion from pivotal diplomatic efforts and IMEC, it also finds itself sidelined in regional security negotiations, highlighting Ankara’s diminishing influence in US strategic plans.
At a recent Munich Security Conference, a meeting between Marco Rubio and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was notably less amiable compared to prior US-Turkey interactions, reflecting Turkey’s growing isolation as Saudi Arabia emerges as Washington’s primary regional partner.