With August now behind us, the “hot” two-month stretch of summer has also come to a close, in a season marked by fluctuations and uneven performance across Greece’s destinations.

While many complained at the peak of the Greek tourism season that visitors were arriving but spending less, early forecasts on how this year’s tourism revenues will ultimately shape up suggest that 2025 may even surpass 2024—the year that set a historic record of €21.6 billion including cruise travel.

The strong performance of the American market, which continues to post impressive numbers in both arrivals and spending—outpacing many European markets—as well as the steady growth of key European markets, are two major positives this summer. Added to this are:

• the impact of inflation, which has raised prices for tourism packages,
• the decline in road arrivals from nearby countries (traditionally low spenders),
• and the increase in scheduled airline seats this autumn (not just compared to 2024 but even exceeding July–August 2025 levels).

Together, these factors could drive higher average spending and overall revenues for Greek tourism this year.

Mixed Picture in Arrivals

The broader picture of inbound travel remains uncertain, as reflected in official data. In the first half of 2025, arrivals grew only marginally by 0.6%, with a 1.7% drop in June, according to the Bank of Greece’s travel balance figures. Tourism officials warn that a decline in total arrivals cannot be ruled out for the first time. Yet, paradoxically, international air arrivals rose 5.4% in June and 4.6% in July compared with last year. The exception is the Cyclades, where Santorini dragged figures down by 7.4% in the first seven months of 2025, totaling fewer than 638,000 international arrivals.

The Crucial Third Quarter

The July–August period, which is decisive for the sector, continues to send mixed signals, with the industry awaiting the Bank of Greece’s official data. Traditionally, the third quarter accounts for more than half of annual tourism revenues—54% in 2024 (compared with nearly 60% in 2019). In terms of arrivals, the share was 52% last year. Specifically, out of €20.59 billion in revenues (excluding cruises), July–August 2024 contributed €11.07 billion.

Despite a slight weakening of seasonality patterns in 2024, the “sun and sea” model remains a core driver. In June 2025, arrivals fell 1.7% to 4.6 million travelers, but revenues rose 8.8% to €3.3 billion. Overall, in the first half of the year, 11.69 million travelers spent €7.66 billion—an 11% increase in revenues.

By July, official airport data showed passenger traffic (domestic and international) up 4.7% year-on-year, reaching 44.7 million passengers. According to the Greek Tourism Confederation’s Institute (INSETE), international air arrivals in January–July climbed 5.3% to 15.2 million travelers (+769,000 compared with 2024). July alone brought 4.9 million arrivals (+212,000).

Five Key Factors for 2025 Tourism Revenues

1. More airline seats in autumn: Scheduled airline capacity for Greece continues to rise (+4.9% in September and October compared with 2024), reflecting European travelers’ preference for off-peak months.
2. The American market boom: Weekly direct flights from the U.S. reached 103 this summer, fueling double-digit growth. U.S. arrivals in Athens totaled 661,000 in January–July (+5%), while revenues from the U.S. jumped nearly 30% to €704 million in the first half of 2025.
3. Performance of other key markets: Germany shows strong revenue growth (+13.5%), while France records fewer arrivals (-9.8%) but higher spending. The UK remains more cautious, with lower per-capita spending. Surprisingly, arrivals from Israel surged 51% despite geopolitical tensions.
4. Inflation and rising prices: With Greece’s inflation at 3.7% in July, hotel prices climbed to an average of €147 per double room (up from €142 in 2024). Higher prices may be deterring nearby Balkan markets, with road arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania sharply down.
5. Changing travel mix: The decline in road arrivals—traditionally a low-spending segment—has actually pushed up the average spending per trip. In the first half of 2025, the average spend rose 10% to €623, and to €682 in June.