March 2025 marked a grim milestone for Turkey’s Bayraktar Akinci drone, with two units downed within two weeks under varying circumstances in Africa and the Middle East, raising questions about the future of Turkish drone sales.
On the night of March 31 to April 1, an Akinci crashed near Tinzaouaten in northeastern Mali, close to the Algerian border, where the Malian army is combating armed groups. Fighters from the Azawad Liberation Front photographed the wreckage, while Algeria claimed it shot down an “armed surveillance drone” violating its airspace. Mali, which acquired two Akinci drones from Turkey in 2024, confirmed a crash during a surveillance mission and is investigating. Whether it was shot down or succumbed to damage or malfunction, the loss is a blow to Mali’s fledgling drone fleet.
Just two weeks earlier, on March 16, another Akinci in Turkish service was downed in Iraqi Kurdistan by the PKK, Turkey’s long-standing adversary. The PKK released footage of the strike, showcasing their growing capability—possibly aided by Iranian-made missiles and drones with advanced sensors—to target unmanned aircraft. Over the past year, the PKK has proven adept at downing Turkish drones.
Similarly, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria have honed their anti-drone skills since late 2024, taking out Turkish Bayraktar TB2, Aksungur, and Anka drones, and even mistakenly downing a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper. These medium-altitude Turkish drones, like the durable TB2, are affordable and battle-hardened, while the high-altitude Akinci boasts advanced sensors, heavier payloads, and sophisticated weaponry, including air-to-air missiles.
The Akinci’s prowess was evident last May when it aided Iran in locating President Ebrahim Raisi’s crashed helicopter using thermal imaging in treacherous conditions—a high-profile demonstration of its capabilities. Despite its higher cost compared to the widely exported TB2, Turkey has secured Akinci sales to at least 11 countries. However, recent losses could dampen its appeal.
If Algeria’s air force downed the Mali Akinci—a plausible scenario given its advanced defenses—it might soften the reputational hit, as most drones struggle against fighter jets. (Iran, for instance, downed a U.S. RQ-4A Global Hawk in 2019.) Still, the downed Akinci in Mali and Iraq were likely flying lower than their 45,118-foot ceiling, making them vulnerable to missiles or even shoulder-launched weapons, as seen with Houthi strikes on U.S. Reapers in Yemen.
For African buyers like Mali and Somalia, which received two Akinci drones in March 2025 to combat Al-Shabaab, the loss of even one unit is costly. Mali’s crash slashed its tiny fleet by half, while a similar loss in Somalia could further erode confidence in the Akinci, especially if non-state actors like Al-Shabaab succeed where state militaries have not.
Morocco, which took delivery of Akinci drones in February 2025 after buying TB2s in 2021, is likely scrutinizing the Mali incident. Engaged in conflict with the Polisario Front, Rabat may hesitate to deploy its pricier Akinci near Algeria’s border.
Turkey’s drone losses—spanning TB2, Aksungur, Anka, and Akinci—across the Middle East and Africa are mounting. Akinci’s back-to-back losses in March stand out, given its status as Ankara’s most advanced export. Whether these setbacks will hinder Turkey’s drone market dominance remains to be seen.
SOURCE: Forbes