Greece and Turkey Ties Tested Ahead of Planned Summit

The upcoming meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to take place in an increasingly tense climate, as both sides prepare for the 6th High-Level Cooperation Council (HLCC) expected to be held in Ankara in early February.

While the final date has yet to be officially announced, diplomatic sources point to the first half of February as the most likely window. The timing comes amid renewed “ripples” in what had been described as calmer waters, following statements by Turkish officials, reports in Turkish media, and violations in the Aegean by armed Turkish F-16 fighter jets.

Although such developments are not unprecedented ahead of leadership summits between Athens and Ankara, they do not currently reflect the spirit of the Athens Declaration of Friendship. Still, both governments appear committed—for their own reasons—to maintaining the functional relationship that has been built over the past two and a half years.

Against a backdrop of regional instability and shifting geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey are focusing on so-called “low-agenda” issues that traditionally foster cooperation. Ankara has expressed a clear desire to proceed with the HLCC, where Mitsotakis and Erdogan are expected to exchange views, even if that means agreeing to disagree. Athens, for its part, has stressed the importance of continuing structured dialogue, without necessarily expecting dramatic breakthroughs.

Greek diplomatic sources underline that keeping communication channels open is vital, as they have helped prevent tensions from escalating into crises in the past. Greece continues to present itself as a pillar of stability in the region, promoting cooperation based on international law, while Turkey maintains revisionist rhetoric on several fronts.

Despite differences, Greek officials insist there is always room for eventual agreement on delimiting the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones (EEZs), which they view as the only sustainable path toward peace and prosperity in the region.

Broader regional developments are also weighing on relations, including the trilateral meeting in Jerusalem, developments in Gaza, Libya, Syria and Lebanon, and Turkey’s bid to expand its influence in these areas. These issues, alongside disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, continue to test bilateral ties.

The next step in preparations will be a final coordination between Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan ahead of the upcoming rounds of Political Dialogue on January 20 and the Positive Agenda talks on January 21, aimed at settling procedural matters for the HLCC.

Meanwhile, key realities remain unchanged: Washington’s stance on Turkey’s request for F-35 fighter jets, and Ankara’s positions on Cyprus and territorial waters, including references to the casus belli and the SAFE framework.