Trump Iran Tariff Threats Put Pressure on Turkish Economy

US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries that continue trading with Iran is set to place renewed strain on Turkey’s economy and energy policy, despite a recent easing of tensions and closer coordination between Washington and Ankara.

Trump announced that any country maintaining commercial ties with Iran will face an additional 25 percent customs tariff on its trade with the United States, with the measure taking effect immediately. The White House has not provided details on enforcement mechanisms, possible exemptions, or country-specific waivers, leaving governments and businesses uncertain about the practical impact of the policy.

The move represents a sharp escalation beyond traditional sanctions enforcement, as it treats trade with Iran itself as grounds for punitive tariffs, regardless of whether transactions violate existing sanctions regimes.

For Turkey, which has longstanding economic relations with Iran and depends on it for a portion of its energy supply, the potential consequences are significant. According to World Bank data, Iran exported $5.8 billion worth of goods to Turkey in 2022, while Turkish exports to Iran totaled $6.1 billion in the same year. More recent figures from Turkey’s statistical agency TurkStat indicate that between January and November 2025, Turkey exported $2.7 billion in goods to Iran and imported $2.3 billion, underscoring the resilience of bilateral trade despite years of US sanctions pressure.

Energy ties remain particularly sensitive. In 2024, Turkey sourced 13.5 percent of its natural gas imports from Iran, a level of dependence Ankara has struggled to reduce due to infrastructure constraints and limited alternative suppliers.

At the same time, Turkey’s trade relationship with the United States remains economically vital. Bilateral trade has hovered around $30 billion annually in recent years, with Turkey exporting automobiles, machinery, textiles, and steel products to the US, while importing aircraft, defence equipment, energy products, and high-value industrial goods. A blanket 25 percent tariff on this trade would pose a serious challenge for Turkish exporters already grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weakening global demand.

Analysts note that the most disruptive element of Trump’s move lies in its departure from previous sanctions frameworks. Earlier US measures typically targeted specific entities, prohibited transactions, or deliberate attempts to evade sanctions. Under the new approach, continued trade with Iran alone appears sufficient to trigger penalties, even if such trade is conducted legally under Turkish law and outside US financial systems.

(Source: Nordic Monitor)