Whenever you want to know how good or bad a situation in a country is, observe how serious investors are responding to it, especially before and after a gas find.
At the statement, by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that “in two days” he was to announce some “exciting news,” the markets responded positively. The Turkish lira and stock market regained some lost ground. There were enough hints dropped around as to the nature of this “exciting news,” to draw just those positive reactions.
However, “investors buy on rumour and sell on news” and this case was no exception.
When the details of the “massive find” were revealed, it turned out that the conclusions reached on it were premature and unprofessional.
As for how “massive” the find is, according to experts, the reported 320 billion cubic metres of natural gas, provided it is not an over optimistic estimate and that it can all be extracted, is barely enough to meet Turkey’s domestic needs for 7 to 8 years. Hardly enough to turn Turkey into a player in the international energy sector.
Finds, estimated in the trillions of cubic metres are considered “adequate” for the big energy companies to show an interest in. Anything less than that, is not viewed as viable or worth the investment.
On the very same day that the “exciting news” was revealed, the investors went back to selling Turkish assets and the lira continued on its downward spiral.
This “massive find” is not quite the lottery win Erdoğan needed to save his country’s economy and secure his political and possibly physical survival.
It’s back to turning Christian churches into mosques for the mini-Sultan, which he will try to present as “victories,” something that is beginning to lose its initial appeal for the ordinary Turk, who is finding it increasingly difficult to put food on the table for his family while Erdoğan is enjoying his 1100 room white palace.
Published by Emilios George Ades Georgiades.
The views of the author are not necessarily those of Greek City Times.