JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has cautioned that a global trade war could push the U.S. economy into recession, drive up prices, and strain long-standing international alliances.
In his widely followed annual letter to shareholders released Monday, Dimon said the tariffs introduced last week by President Donald Trump “will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession.”
“The faster this issue is resolved, the better,” he wrote, warning that prolonged uncertainty could lead to cumulative negative effects that are difficult to reverse.
Dimon highlighted several unresolved questions surrounding the tariffs — from potential retaliatory measures by other countries to the broader impact on business confidence, investment, and capital flows.
“I’m hopeful that after negotiations, the long-term outcome could have some benefits for the U.S.,” he noted. “But my biggest concern is how this may damage America’s long-term economic alliances.”
Dimon, who has led JPMorgan since 2006 and remains a key figure on Wall Street, echoed a growing unease within corporate America about the potential fallout from Trump’s trade policies. He said the tariffs would likely be inflationary in the short term and cautioned, “Whether or not the tariff plan causes a recession is uncertain — but it will slow growth.”
Despite this, he said the U.S. economy remains relatively strong, describing businesses as healthy and consumers as still spending, though he acknowledged some signs of recent softening.
Dimon, once a Democrat but now seen as more centrist, has repeatedly flagged rising geopolitical risks. In his 2024 letter, he pointed to Russia’s war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East as the most serious threats since World War II.
While he criticized the White House’s tariff approach, Dimon voiced support for its efforts to bolster border security and praised Republican priorities such as promoting business, reducing excessive regulation, and limiting government overreach.
Markets reacted sharply on Monday, with global stocks sliding further after U.S. equities lost more than $5 trillion in value over Thursday and Friday.